Waiting For The Miracle

Democrats have had to scale their ambitions back many times in these last few months. In the summer, most of us felt confident that we would pick up the two Senate seats necessary so we could tell Sinema and Manchin to pound sand with their obstructionism. It appeared that the GOP was in disarray. We laughed at a future where a brainless dork like Kevin McCarthy would wield the gavel in the House.

Then the polls started to shift in a really bad way. We self-soothed and said “polls don’t matter”. Liberals used tons of hopium, making wild predictions instead about a blue wave. By election night, everyone else was predicting a red slaughterfest.

That did not happen, as far as can be told on this morning after Election Day. Democrats have gained governorships, picked up a Senate seat, and have only lost three House seats, not enough to lose control. As we go through the next few days, we shall see where the battle lines really are.

But there’s one undeniable fact: this midterm is a serious anomaly. In general, the party in power gets pasted for this issue or that issue. Republicans in 2022 hammered upon kitchen table and pocketbook issues, seizing on inflation numbers, debt, gas prices and blaming them on Democrats. With so many peoples’ economic lives as tough as they are, this no doubt resonated with many folk. But it wasn’t enough.

What Republicans could not cover up was January 6th, 2021 and June 24, 2022. Two days that will go down in history: the day a spurned, miserable president conspired to upend an honest election he lost by any means necessary, and the day women were no longer protected by federal guidelines on when they are able to exercise reproductive freedom. And for once, it seems that a majority, albeit a small one, miraculously did not forget when they went to vote.

Those twin atrocities warped the prediction of this election quite badly- and we’re going to be sick from all the mea culpas and explanations for weeks after on how awfully everyone, and I do mean everyone, blew the call on this one.

Many people are going to continue to conclude that this is the evidence that shows polling is a relic, now that we live in an age where everyone screens their calls, barely uses landlines, and frequently communicates to most by text on their cells. Often I see things like, “Well I have never been contacted by a poller, so who are they polling. Is it really happening?” Look, dummies. It’s a nation of hundreds of millions of people. That you have not been selected to participate in a 700 person survey is not surprising. Myself, I have been polled once, and admittedly, it was a long time ago. But people want to know who is picking up their phones and answering these surveys, and often it is blamed on the older set, who may not be as technologically savvy as the rest of us. Maybe that’s true, maybe not. You would have to drill down on the demographics of any given poll, and I would assume, if any poll conducted was only answered by a certain set of people, that polling organization would scrap that poll and try again until they got one that did a better job of taking even samples in a number of categories.

Here’s the deal; we have to realize that history moves through us and events will change the way damn near anything goes, and it does so very often without our permission. All that we can do is react in the best way we can to survive and perhaps flourish. So far, the right amount of people have done just that. I know no god, I shall not pray-having voted, all I can do now is watch what everyone else who still believes in democracy did.

About The Head Seminarian

I went to war, I went to father, I came, I saw, and it is a mess. I wouldn't have it any other way. Shitty people amuse me, people who act like human volcanoes fascinate me like fine art. Life is beautiful, and it is under attack in a manner heretofore unseen in history. I might be writing a blog. Yes, that's all I am doing, now that I think about it. Even I forget sometimes, so we're cool.

Posted on November 9, 2022, in Election 2022, Polling and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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